In the history of humanity, agriculture has only existed for ten thousand years. It appeared in the Neolithic age, around the 8th millennium BC, probably in the Middle East. At the same time, societies were growing up around agriculture, which played an essential role, both in Asia with rice and in Latin America with maize. The agricultural revolution got off to a timid start in Europe at the end of the 18th century and developed in the 19th century. It primarily led to the introduction of forage crops and the creation of cultivated grasslands to support more livestock, a good supply of manure and higher crop yields as a result. With this significant increase in productivity, Western agriculture finally left behind the recurring spectre of food shortages.

Food crises have many causes. Demographic growth implies an increase in food consumption (+2% per annum). In the last forty years, the world’s population went from 3.1 billion to 6.3 billion people and should reach 9 billion in 2050. This demographic growth is partly explained by the sharp drop in mortality in a large number of developing countries. The major demographic trends have affected humanity’s nutritional needs and, similarly, the necessary food supplies to meet those needs. The two-digit annual economic growth in highly populated countries like China, India and a few others (representing almost 3 billion people) is leading to an increase in the purchasing power of hundreds of millions of consumers who are adding more dairy and meat products to their diet. Meat consumption has increased 150% in China. Yet 4 to 10 plant proteins are required to produce 1 animal protein.

Global warming is also a major cause of these food crises because it makes farming more hazardous and increases the number of natural disasters (drought, flooding, cyclones, earthquakes, etc.). For instance, Australia, a large cereal producing country, has had five years of drought. Bangladesh suffered from floods twice in the same year (2007) affecting 40% of its territory, and Myanmar was hit by a cyclone, losing a major part of its agricultural productions including 65% of its rice, 80% of aquaculture and 50% of animal husbandry. Certain experts believe that these climate problems will not only affect poor, tropical countries but may impact Europe too, which will require heavy agro-environmental investments.

The water covering the major part of the earth’s surface is primarily seawater and freshwater only represents 2.3% of total resources, 2/3rd of which are permanently frozen. The drop in groundwater is a considerable problem all over the planet (pumping significantly higher than groundwater regeneration). Rivers are beginning to dry up in summer on every continent and many lakes and inland seas are quite simply disappearing. Irrigation for crops is likely to become more difficult and huge efforts will be required to save water and find a way to live off plants that consume less (1 ton of water to produce 1 kg of cereals on average). Agriculture remains the largest consumer of the planet’s freshwater supply (80% of total consumption in developing countries against 40% in high-income OECD countries). The irrigation methods employed are frequently still too outdated, causing a considerable waste of freshwater. Climate changes should also have repercussions on water. They will generate alterations in the average pluviometry figures, rising in some regions already well-endowed with water and, on the contrary, falling (10 to 30%) in other regions, including tropical regions and some countries nearer to us. Although there is sufficient freshwater to satisfy all mankind’s needs, the resources are poorly distributed, resulting in “hydric stress” (ratio between the available freshwater volumes and the volumes necessary to man). At the moment, 700 million people spanning over forty countries live below the “hydric stress” threshold. Between now and 2025, the number could rise to 3 billion, with the phenomenon worsening in sub-Sahara Africa, China and India. Far worse, 1.8 billion people may be facing a situation of “absolute rarity” of water by then. In the meantime, 2 million tons of waste is dumped around the planet every day, polluting 12,000 km3 of freshwater.

About 70% of the world’s population lives off agriculture. The issue of the development of agricultures in the world is central to the future of societies largely organized and built around the farming world. The creation or reinforcement of industrial or tertiary economic activities is essential for the development of agriculture. The experts believe that we have to increase world agricultural production by 30% to eliminate malnutrition and hunger, and double it to match the 50% increase in the world’s population by 2050 (based on a food intake ratio of 2,425 k/cal.). Innovation and research are definitely the keys to achieving this threefold challenge of food, energy and climate. Every discipline should be consulted: molecular biology, ecology (from gene to plant and plant to lands). There are endless possibilities between agricultural productivity and organic production (sustainable development, quality markings and labels, reasoned agriculture, food safety, etc.). At the same time, we must organize ourselves to track waste at all levels. Between 15% and 35% of foodstuffs are lost before leaving the fields in Africa. In developed countries, 14% to 30% are destroyed at consumption level and 10% to 15% are lost upstream of the sale (conversion, transport, storage, etc.). Moreover, reducing the total calories consumed in developed countries is also a key factor in meeting this challenge.

Bruno Parmentier
(Managing Director of Groupe ESA d’Angers)

« The sharp rise in the price of certain agricultural raw materials, particularly cereals, followed by food riots in about 35 countries, put this question back on the agenda: can we feed 9 billion inhabitants in 2050? We are facing a truly fundamental problem. World food consumption is rising by over 2% per annum and already 1.2% as a result of the population increase, then more in view of the gradual access of hundreds of millions of new consumers to meat and other animal products, not to mention the 800 million car and lorry owners who suddenly find it convenient to burn cereals in their engines to offset the rise in petrol prices. At the other end of the chain, production is struggling to keep up. On the one hand, global warming is making farming more hazardous with more and more droughts, flooding and cyclones. On the other hand, the green revolution that helped eliminate the spectre of hunger in Europe and fed billions of Asians, is coming to the end of what it can give. We increased productivity very sharply at the end of the 20th century, but we consumed four times more land, water, energy and chemicals; yet these four “plus” signs are actually becoming four “minus” signs in the 21st century and yields are stagnating again. Lastly, we systematically destroyed all the food crop aids in most Third World countries, by making them believe that some countries would always have low-cost surpluses to feed their cities in an open world market. Yet this year Thai rice, Australian and French wheat and American maize largely withdrew from world markets, triggering famines in these dependent countries. We should therefore take this warning very seriously and reinvest in agriculture massively if we want to reverse a trend that will otherwise lead us straight into wars. In countries with high productivity, invent a “doubly green” revolution with “high environmental intensity” that increases productivity again while burdening the planet less (specifically, by relying on biological processes to put biodiversity to work, the association of plants and animals, what we previously achieved by chemistry, machines and energy, and relying on our improved understanding of genes). And in Third World countries, particularly African countries, reinvest very heavily by sending back technicians for farming, light engineering and irrigation system maintenance, micro-credit, fertilizers, seeds, storage means, whatever helps small farmers manage to feed themselves rather than move to the shantytown to be fed by consuming our surpluses. And allow them to close their borders to protect this necessarily fragile effort. And lastly, waste less in all countries and at all stages and therefore, at home, eat less meat. ».

Hervé Guyomard
(Scientific Director of the Society, Economy and Decision Department at INRA)

« The present food crisis is not due to a lack of foodstuffs on a global level. It is due to problems of access to food for the poorest people, who devote the majority of their income to food expenditure and consequently cannot support the rise in the price of agricultural raw materials. So we need to take targeted measures on demand in the short term. However, agricultural production needs to be doubled to feed the 9 billion inhabitants the planet will have in 2050. In future, we will not only have to produce more, we will have to produce better, which means with greater respect for the environment, notably in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, preservation of biodiversity and protecting the water resource. International agronomical research is mobilizing to face this twofold challenge. There will not be only one solution; it will take many shapes, necessarily adapted to local conditions both in terms of ecosystems and organization of actors. To increase yields in countries where they are low will demand greater use of fertilizers and products to protect plants; it will also be necessary to develop new species and varieties, better suited to the lack of water or able to use brackish water, resistant to climatic fluctuations, etc. It will also mean investing in storage and transport infrastructures in particular, as well as reducing all losses between field and fork, which will demand revisions of the food models in developed countries. Lastly, we must stress the importance of world trade to ensure a balance between food supply and demand on a planetary scale. This trade must be regulated, with the goal of reducing price volatility in particular ».